Obama in Berlin

He was as noble, and hopeful as I have always said he is--and I was for him when it wasn't fashionable. I've been talking to good friends from across the United States this week though, and I can't help but note their advice and the way things under the shiny surface are much more difficult for Obama than people seem to realise. What are people going to do when they go into the ballot booth?

The polls are wrong. Obama polls worse with late deciders and with older people who vote. His numbers will be less than they are because of that. Yet those with only a cell phone--most of the young, extending well into the twentysomethings--can't be polled, so his numbers may be up.

John McCain is a tough candidate, he has been back from the dead multiple times, physically and metaphorically, and if he makes it to November he should not be written off. Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany and the smartest politician in Europe, gets this, which is presumably why she wasn't taken with the Obamania. Do Americans get it though?

In battleground states important for the electoral college, Obama is being presented as losing ground. For some reason, pro-Hillary cnn have really taken against him and Obama's 'Frenemy' Hillary-heads like Joan Walsh at Salon.com are now attempting to build up capital as supporters in order to drop something on him.

I also think Obama ought to lay off the one world, 'save the planet' rubbish. It is tempting and maybe he is addicted to the adulation by now--but it doesn't play in these, American Berlins.

Do not give in to the media nonsense. America is in a systemic crisis and neither Obama nor McCain are easy to elevate or write off this far from the election. Both of these activities will be engaged in hysterically in coming weeks.

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