Prediction is a dangerous game... especially about the future, as the late great Yogi Berra is rumoured to have said. Barack Obama's presidency is a case in point. I thought between around 2007 and 2010 that he would win the Democrat nomination, beat McCain--and be a one term president, and said that to friends as well as writing it in various places before events unfolded. The problems of the American economy, which people are pretending is out of the woods, and the fissiparous and demented nature of American politics have all suggested that the best Mr Obama could hope for in 2012 is a split in the electoral college and a replay of Bush v Gore in his favour, and I think that if an election were held today , a tie would result. With the retirement of the Republican A-team at the start of the race--Petraeus, Rice, Daniels, Ryan, and Bush--I also thought that the only two people who could win the nomination on that side were Perry and Romney, and Perry imploded oddly, and early. My ...
This is a collection of personal and largely unedited observations covering the years from 2006 to now; I assert my copyright but am fine with links and footnotes. Some posts are obviously much more researched than others, and any errors are wholly mine except where I have innocently disseminated or linked to other bloggers or commentators.