A Reader Writes
I am becoming more and more convinced of the Peak Oil idea by the day. It has been playing around my head for some years, but we do seem to be entering a period when it's predictive validity is being tested. The theory, which holds that we have used more oil at viable prices than is left, is still largely unknown. This is a pity, since the impact of predicted future oil shocks and of sustained high trend prices for oil will affect all of us. Arguably, the theory is better founded than some of that associated with global warming.
Anyway, a reader who wrote in on the comments section after my post about airships has put things better than I did. I wanted to share the comment, from damifino, with you;
As we enter this age of limits, the most difficult aspect of 'looking forward projections', airships or otherwise, is coming to grips with our interdependency with oil. It is near impossible to comprehend just how ingrained it is in all we do and produce, and how hoped-for solutions will not be possible without it.
I am not speaking so much about the physical availability of oil, although a reduction is a given, but the requirement that it be cheap. The ever increasing costs of extraction, transport, and refining oil will either negate or suppress many alternative modes of transportation, as well as our general comfort and convenience.
The cultural psychology is equally if not more so problematic. Now is the time to contract our horizons and judiciously allocate the resources we have remaining. I fear we will not see the danger, and continue squandering our precious assets.
"60 Minutes" ran a piece this past Sunday on the USA’s ramped up program to return to the moon and then head for Mars. In a time of earthly depletion, this venture reminds me that we are reactive, not proactive thinkers, and as such, may not be able to respond to the challenges of the near future.
I saw an airline analyst on ABC World New who was commenting on the demise (bankruptcy) of three airlines in one week. I sent him an email inquiring if he ascribed the default in any way to Peak Oil. He responded, “What’s peak oil?” I was dumbfounded that an individual who provides financial and logistic guidance to such a fundamental industry had no understanding of the constraints present in the marketplace. His lack of awareness is emblematic of most industry leaders, and a core reason why any hoped for transition will be difficult to impossible to implement.
I agree. The challenge of mixing a doctrine of limits with the right sort of proactive behaviour is becoming one for all of us, and for society at large. I urge you to dust off the Christopher Lasch books, look up peak oil, and to think, just simply think, about a doctrine of true democracy in awareness of our limitations.
I am becoming more and more convinced of the Peak Oil idea by the day. It has been playing around my head for some years, but we do seem to be entering a period when it's predictive validity is being tested. The theory, which holds that we have used more oil at viable prices than is left, is still largely unknown. This is a pity, since the impact of predicted future oil shocks and of sustained high trend prices for oil will affect all of us. Arguably, the theory is better founded than some of that associated with global warming.
Anyway, a reader who wrote in on the comments section after my post about airships has put things better than I did. I wanted to share the comment, from damifino, with you;
As we enter this age of limits, the most difficult aspect of 'looking forward projections', airships or otherwise, is coming to grips with our interdependency with oil. It is near impossible to comprehend just how ingrained it is in all we do and produce, and how hoped-for solutions will not be possible without it.
I am not speaking so much about the physical availability of oil, although a reduction is a given, but the requirement that it be cheap. The ever increasing costs of extraction, transport, and refining oil will either negate or suppress many alternative modes of transportation, as well as our general comfort and convenience.
The cultural psychology is equally if not more so problematic. Now is the time to contract our horizons and judiciously allocate the resources we have remaining. I fear we will not see the danger, and continue squandering our precious assets.
"60 Minutes" ran a piece this past Sunday on the USA’s ramped up program to return to the moon and then head for Mars. In a time of earthly depletion, this venture reminds me that we are reactive, not proactive thinkers, and as such, may not be able to respond to the challenges of the near future.
I saw an airline analyst on ABC World New who was commenting on the demise (bankruptcy) of three airlines in one week. I sent him an email inquiring if he ascribed the default in any way to Peak Oil. He responded, “What’s peak oil?” I was dumbfounded that an individual who provides financial and logistic guidance to such a fundamental industry had no understanding of the constraints present in the marketplace. His lack of awareness is emblematic of most industry leaders, and a core reason why any hoped for transition will be difficult to impossible to implement.
I agree. The challenge of mixing a doctrine of limits with the right sort of proactive behaviour is becoming one for all of us, and for society at large. I urge you to dust off the Christopher Lasch books, look up peak oil, and to think, just simply think, about a doctrine of true democracy in awareness of our limitations.
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