The Dangers and opportunities for Obama: An initial reaction

The picture is of the Doge Loredan, elected long ago in Venice when she was Queen of the Adriatic. I put it up half because I love a Bellini almost as much as a French 75, and where else to parade my vulgar tastes but a blog?

Presidencies can go wrong even before they begin. I note that the last Democrat to win as well as Obama (who had vastly better organisation and money than his rival) was Jimmy Carter, whose slogan 'a leader, for a change' paralleled this one. Carter was also quite cerebral, different from most of his party, and similarly inspired great hopes. This swiftly fell away, and our memory of his presidency today is one of stagflation, killer rabbits, Christopher-lasch type observations on Malaise, and the satire of Diane from Cheers identifying him in her college thesis as a potential three term president.

The rocks and shoals are obvious. Carter became alienated from his own Democratic Party in Congress quite quickly. This is widely thought to be because he surrounded himself with a 'Georgia gang' composed of the likes of Hamilton Jordan and others rather than washington insiders. Actually, I think it was more to do with style; Tip O'Neill understood machines and congressional coalitions and Carter didn't. That shouldn't be Obama's problem however; he is a machine politician from a big city.

A second problem is perhaps the opposite. There will be a tremendous push to avoid repeating the Carter-Clinton problem of alienation from Congress by bringing in congressional figures and insiders into the administration quite quickly. Serious heads will nod, the washington power elites will mutter about Richard Holbrooke and David Gergen, Chuck Hagel, Giuliani or even McCain will be thrust forward and the people who have always been in power will attempt to bounce Obama.

In the past, this has led to disasters like the Bay of Pigs, and one can make a case for the idea that 9/11 happened because Bush's 'wise power elite' didn't talk to Clinton's people or recall the ropes. I think that this is where the selection of someone like Biden, who knows where all the bodies are buried and can see through this sort of thing comes into its own. Obama should be protected against that.

In those circumstances, the idea will be to put the appearance of patriotism first and then to use patronage and appointments to divide the opposition and systematically crush the republican movement whilst isolating potential enemies in a way that could do some good. Hillary for the Supreme Court, anyone? Powell for UN Ambassador? McCain or Hagel for Secretary of Defense? If they accept, great. If they reject, it will still have divided their own side, and also made them seem people who don't unify.

The Pentagon, at least, is already prepared for transition, and has helpfully produced a list of people who could stay on to help, if necessary. I just hope it isn't codenamed Gladio.

A test will come, too. Biden was right. Many within America, and some on the neoconservative 'decent left' blogosphere already seem to see this election as an excuse to bomb Pakistan with a clear racial conscience. Here again, Obama has protected himself by already focusing on the Afghan war, but I wonder if this won't spin out of control.

Finally, follow the money. The worst presidents are great if they deliver prosperity, and terrible if they do not. America does need to rebuild infrastructure. Roads and bridges in Democrat areas need to go first, with strategic picks for republican congressional projects that can be traded for favour later used ruthlessly. However, the main point is that the debt, the deficit and the dollar are now, respectively, up, up and down. This offers a chance to restrain congressional liberals, but also the threat of a dollar crisis and a spike in oil which will allow it to move from its historically high level up again.

If America faces an oil or debt crisis, shouldn't self-described liberals go on the attack? With backs to the wall, the fists have to come out.

With AIG insurance going bust, road funding needed, infrastructure programmes becoming potentially popular, and states under pressure to insure their own mass transit systems, is this the time to look innovative by turning to rail, public airports, trams, and the international highway project again?

Public ownership could be advanced behind a banner of repairing America and protecting social security to deliver a generational governing majority. How about a clean drilling project to take Alaska's oil out with profits going to a government body linked to the social security fund?

Most importantly, an intelligent policy to win over moderate muslims, crush Islamism, stabilise Lebanon and Syria and play on Iran's divisions will yield great returns if Bush and Cheney are not allowed to spend the next eleven weeks trying to start another war. Obama should very swiftly move to encourage the Joint Chiefs to go very slow or oppose any attack order in private. They do not need much encouragement, but such incitements to disobey the commander in chief need to be handled very carefully.

With all of this, things may be looking up in the world. Economic nationalism that bankrupts the British national security industries and requires us to nationalise BAe and other military providers the government is now dependent on would be most welcome. Since the right are either crazy or dispirited at the minute, their objections will be self-destructive.

Those are my initial, tired thoughts. I'm glad America now has new, open leadership--behind a clear armoured bulletproof screen.

Update: Every Jack needs a Bobby. These are the words of Mr Obama's new Chief of Staff, (apparently) on learning of Democrat 'Traitors';

The night after Clinton was elected, Emanuel was so angry at the president's enemies that he stood up at a celebratory dinner with colleagues from the campaign, grabbed a steak knife and began rattling off a list of betrayers, shouting "Dead! ... Dead! ... Dead!" and plunging the knife into the table after every name. "When he was done, the table looked like a lunar landscape," one campaign veteran recalls. "It was like something out of The Godfather. But that's Rahm for you."

Quite. I grew up in Corby. I hear you, sunshine.