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Obama-Palin

I just want to record this point clearly. If Barack Obama and John McCain tie in the electoral college, with 269 votes each--and I think a glance at Real Clear Politics' electoral college map suggests that they will unless one makes unrealistic assumptions at this time--then there are three steps to the presidency. (I disagree with the allocation of states there--when you look at the map, go to the one where you can allocate the toss-up states yourself, and you'll see 269 is a likely Obama figure, not 273).

Firstly, the electors could be encouraged to drop their allegiance and to vote for the winner of the popular vote. Candidates would have a month to do this.

Second, if that does not work, the House of Representatives, state delegations acting as a bloc--so California has as many votes as Delaware--elects the president. I think that this would be Obama. Some others who have thought of this before me agree.

Third, the Senate in such circumstances elects the Vice-President. Obama and Biden would vote for Biden; 47 Democrats would agree. Lieberman and McCain would vote for Palin. 48 Senators would agree with them. If one defected, by my reckoning Dick Cheney would still be Vice President until the inauguration and he would cast the deciding vote.

This would be the new Senate, inaugurated in January, but the old Vice-President. If they chose one of their number to preside over the Senate rather than the Vice-President, and the Vice President agreed, things could get even more complicated.

The past few elections have been extremely close. All of them threw up this possibility. If a reader can tell me why Obama-Palin isn't an outside chance, I'd be grateful. It would seem to correspond to what America wants.

However, since the republic is now run by Hank Paulson with no legal oversight and a trillion in his chequebook that no-one voted for, it might not matter. We may have seen it pass into being something else last week anyway.

A related question; what happens if McCain or Obama die after the election but before the electoral college meets? The law seems to suggest that the electors or the House elect the cadaver and then inaugurate the Vice-president, who becomes president automatically. Horace Greeley, as my regular reader will know, lost before he died, so it wasn't an issue for the college in 1872 (though he still got 3 votes, which weren't eventually counted!)

God almighty.

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