Martin Meenagh blog

The first taste of peak oil

The first taste of the problems with oil that are to come seems to be over. Oil is falling to an historically high level as I write. It is, if it is a fossil fuel, still past its peak as it does so, and I'm fairly sure that it's past peak flow. I say 'if' because there is some small argument at the minute (I'm not convinced but you might like a look) that it isn't, thanks to one of my commenters--a hedge fund trader-- who provided this link.

'Demand destruction' which is not yet showing up in the lagged GDP figures for this and other countries, is taking place. So, hooray--we are in a recession, global trade is falling rapidly, and energy and plastics have become progressively more affordable, but at least oil won't run out tomorrow.

Oh, and solar cycle 24 has still not started. Here is a link to a fantastic site monitoring the driver of earth's climate, which I got from the Devil's Kitchen today. The devil has also been doing sterling work of late by pointing out how much of the global warming argument is based on nonsense statistics. It meshes with my own predeliction for hanging around global cooling sites.

So, no jobs, little heat, and a global monetary crisis; and no nuclear power stations coming on stream either. It's all so sad, though China seems to be adapting much more rapidly than anyone predicted (if their figures can be believed) to a non-oil future. That, at least is a happy thing.

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